FISCAL TRANSFERS
RAB BOYCE, AUGUST 2018
What are Fiscal Transfers?
Fiscal transfers occur where public expenditure is not directly tied to where revenue is raised. Fiscal transfers can be thought of as a form of redistribution through the tax system and occur on an individual level as well as a regional level.
On an individual level, fiscal transfers are enacted via staggered rates of income tax, wealth & property taxes, and welfare & benefits. At a regional level, fiscal transfers are used to manage the flow of funds from wealthier to poorer regions by way of public tax and spend policy. These differences in regional revenue and expenditure result in an internal fiscal transfer between the various UK regions. We will be discussing regional fiscal transfers in this article.
As a product of a normally functioning, integrated economy, fiscal transfers serve two main functions:
- redistribution, or permanent transfer of funds from richer to poorer regions, helping the convergence of regional living standards to meet the national average, and
- insurance against macroeconomic shocks, or temporary transfer of funds to smooth out the impact of idiosyncratic regional (risk-sharing) and common (stabilisation) shocks.
Fiscal transfers are a bi-product of tax and spend policy. These are essentially a logical accounting exercise and are not in any way a subsidy, loan or debt.
Regional fiscal transfers are not unique to the UK. Large fiscal transfers between the wealthy and poorer regions in Germany are a well-known example. However, the independence debate has brought this topic into sharp focus as, in the event of Scottish Independence, any fiscal transfer to/from the rest of the UK would cease.
Net fiscal balance, surplus and deficit
A net fiscal balance
is defined as the difference between revenue and expenditure.
A surplus
is defined when the net fiscal balance is a positive amount.
A deficit
is when this it is a negative amount.
Calculating Fiscal Transfers
If, like in the UK, there is an integrated economy where tax and spend are not tied to specific regions, then disparities in regional fiscal balances are smoothed out by an effective fiscal transfer from the best performing regions to the worst.
The Fiscal transfer can be calculated by taking a region’s net fiscal balance from the population share of the national fiscal balance
For example:
THE UNITED KINGDOM
The UK’s net fiscal deficit
is £45,677m. If uniformly distributed (split equally across the population) this would result in a net fiscal deficit per person of £695.
Net Fiscal Balances
The Constituent Nations
The UK runs a countrywide fiscal deficit. We can use the latest ONS Regional Statistics report for 2016-17 [1] to examine the various countries and their contributions to this. Of the component countries in the UK only England has a negative fiscal transfer. This is due to its relatively small net fiscal balance compared to its population size. i.e. England's deficit is less than its population share of the UK total. Logically, this means that revenue flows out of England to the other regions, however, in practice as the whole of the UK is in deficit this means that England bears a disproportionately increased debt burden. Scotland has a positive fiscal transfer, as its actual deficit is higher than its population share.
Revenue (£m) | Expenditure (£m) | Net Fiscal Balance (£m) | Population % | Population Share of UK deficit (£m) | Fiscal Transfer (£m)* | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
United Kingdom | 726,309 | 771,986 | -45,677 | 100.0% | -45,677 | 0 |
England | 626,289 | 635,028 | -8,739 | 84.2% | -38,458 | -29,719 |
Wales | 26,086 | 39,334 | -13,248 | 4.7% | -2,165 | 11,083 |
Scotland | 57,267 | 71,609 | -14,342 | 8.2% | -3,758 | 10,583 |
Northern Ireland | 16,667 | 26,015 | -9,348 | 2.8% | -1,295 | 8,053 |
*A positive fiscal transfer indicates that the country gains i.e. funds are transferred from the rest of the UK to bring the country up to the UK average. A negative fiscal transfer indicates that the country loses i.e. funds are transferred from this country to the other countries in the UK to bring the country down to the UK average.
Due to population size discrepancies and a large variance in the performance of the various English regions, a country level view does not tell the whole story.
To provide more useful data with respect to Scotland’s relative performance, we will use the ONS stats to further break down England’s figures into economic regions, which are more comparable with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland in terms of population size.
It is worth noting that while figures are not available, this regional variance also applies to Scotland – for example, during the 80’s oil boom, Aberdeen would have experienced a large positive net fiscal balance compared to Scotland's west coast, which faced the economic challenges of de-industrialisation.
UK FISCAL BALANCE
2016-17
COUNTRY FISCAL BALANCE
2016-17
COUNTRY FISCAL TRANSFER
2016-17
Regional
ONS use the NUTS1 region definitions. This does not diminish Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland's status as countries in their own right and is used in the most generic definition of 'region' – meaning 'a geographical area'.
London, the South East and the East of England have negative fiscal transfers, This indicates that their net fiscal balances are higher than their population share. In fact, all three of these regions have positive net fiscal balances, or surpluses. These surpluses drastically reduce England's overall deficit and somewhat mask the underperformance of the other English regions.
Revenue (£m) | Expenditure (£m) | Net Fiscal Balance (£m) | Population % | Population Share of UK deficit (£m) | Fiscal Transfer (£m)* | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
North East | 22,738 | 32,548 | -9,810 | 4.0% | -1,833 | 7,977 |
North West | 65,975 | 85,384 | -19,409 | 11.0% | -5,025 | 14,384 |
Yorkshire and the Humber | 49,400 | 61,344 | -11,944 | 8.3% | -3,774 | 8,170 |
East Midlands | 45,238 | 51,470 | -6,232 | 7.2% | -3,291 | 2,941 |
West Midlands | 52,247 | 65,617 | -13,370 | 8.9% | -4,046 | 9,324 |
East of England | 70,866 | 65,371 | 5,495 | 9.3% | -4,265 | -9,760 |
London | 145,317 | 112,842 | 32,475 | 13.4% | -6,102 | -38,577 |
South East | 117,437 | 97,993 | 19,444 | 13.8% | -6,283 | -25,727 |
South West | 57,071 | 62,459 | -5,388 | 8.4% | -3,840 | 1,548 |
Wales | 26,086 | 39,334 | -13,248 | 4.7% | -2,165 | 11,083 |
Scotland | 57,267 | 71,609 | -14,342 | 8.2% | -3,758 | 10,583 |
Northern Ireland | 16,667 | 26,015 | -9,348 | 2.8% | -1,295 | 8,053 |
Revenue per Head (£) | Expenditure per Head (£) | Net Fiscal Balance per Head (£) | Fiscal Transfer per head (£)* | |
---|---|---|---|---|
North East | 8,617 | 12,335 | -3,718 | 3,023 |
North West | 9,122 | 11,805 | -2,684 | 1,989 |
Yorkshire and the Humber | 9,095 | 11,294 | -2,199 | 1,504 |
East Midlands | 9,550 | 10,866 | -1,316 | 621 |
West Midlands | 8,972 | 11,268 | -2,296 | 1,601 |
East of England | 11,544 | 10,649 | 895 | -1,590 |
London | 16,544 | 12,847 | 3,697 | -4,392 |
South East | 12,987 | 10,836 | 2,150 | -2,845 |
South West | 10,325 | 11,300 | -975 | 280 |
Wales | 8,371 | 12,623 | -4,251 | 3,557 |
Scotland | 10,586 | 13,237 | -2,651 | 1,956 |
Northern Ireland | 8,940 | 13,954 | -5,014 | 4,319 |
*A positive fiscal transfer indicates that the region gains i.e. funds are transferred from the rest of the UK to bring the region up to the UK average. A negative fiscal transfer indicates that the region loses i.e. funds are transferred from this region to the other regions in the UK to bring the region down to the UK average.
REGIONAL NET FISCAL BALANCE
2016-17
REGIONAL FISCAL TRANSFER
2016-17
REGIONAL FISCAL TRANSFER
PER HEAD 2016-17
REGIONS IN SURPLUS
As shown, three regions in the UK have a positive net fiscal balance. These are London, the South East and the East of England. We see that, in particular, London and the South East have significantly large positive balances.
The fact that the three regions in surplus have disproportionately large populations (36.5% of the UK, and 43.3% of England) only serves to amplify the absolute contribution to the aggregated net fiscal position of England. So, while the other English regions have a net fiscal position similar to or worse than Scotland’s, the overall position of England appears much healthier due to the strength of these three regions.
Of the three regions in surplus, London dominates, generating 56.6% of the total from the combined surplus.
Region | Net Fiscal Balance (£m) | Surplus % | UK Population % |
---|---|---|---|
East of England | 5,495 | 9.6% | 9.3% |
London | 32,475 | 56.6% | 13.3% |
South East | 19,444 | 33.9% | 13.7% |
REGIONS IN DEFICIT
If we look at the nine regions that are running a fiscal deficit, we can see that the largest percentage is from the North West at 18.8%, with the South West lowest at 5.2%. Scotland lies half-way between, responsible for 13.9% of the total deficit when you remove the three regions in surplus.
Region | Fiscal Balance | Deficit % | UK Pop % |
---|---|---|---|
North East | -9,810 | 9.5% | 4.0% |
North West | -19,409 | 18.8% | 11.0% |
Yorkshire and the Humber | -11,944 | 11.6% | 8.3% |
East Midlands | -6,232 | 6.0% | 7.2% |
West Midlands | -13,370 | 13.0% | 8.9% |
South West | -5,388 | 5.2% | 8.4% |
Wales | -13,248 | 12.9% | 4.7% |
Scotland | -14,342 | 13.9% | 8.2% |
Northern Ireland | -9,348 | 9.1% | 2.8% |
CONCLUSION
Fiscal transfers can be an engine for economic regeneration, wealth redistribution and harmonisation of living standards across disparate regions within a single economic area.
London, the East and the South East of England continue to generate large fiscal surpluses which help protect spending in the rest of the UK. However, the positive performance of these tends to mask the poorer performance of the other English regions, which can shed unduly negative light on the other three home nations.
With respect to Scotland and the ongoing Independence discussion, this presents a real challenge. In 2016-17, Scotland benefitted from a fiscal transfer of £10,583m from the rest of the UK. This transfer would be lost in the event of independence and shouldn't be ignored by those making the economic case for an Independent Scotland.
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REFERENCES & FOOTNOTES